Is it near?

Thinking about the end of the world this week. Actually, it seems I trip over that subject more often these days. The tenor of the news doesn't seem to help. I read through Matthew 24, where Jesus responded to the questions of his disciples about what would be the signs of the end of the age. There are many different opinions about the end of the world, but I still think that we can take a few valid points away from this passage, independent of your particular brand of eschatology.

First, we are warned to give no heed to those who claim "Christ is here" or "Christ is there". In v 30 he says, "At that time...they will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds...". So, it will be evident to all, you won't need anyone else to tell you that Jesus is here.

Second, Jesus confirms the validity of the prophecies of Daniel in v 15. There are many opinions about the book of Daniel, but I'll stick with Jesus on this one. As another point, the Apostle Paul also refers to the coming "lawless one" in 2 Thessalonians. I might have more to say about this subject in a later post, but not right now.

Third, we are to be faithful to His calling. We must not think we can delay our obligations just because we don't think he is coming anytime soon.

Fourth, the time may be unknowable, but we should be able to recognize the season. There will be signs.

As for recognizing the season, the signs of the times, I think there are abundant reasons to say that the time of His appearing draws near. What is near? 2 years? 10 years? 50 years? I don't know, but I can't see it being 50, probably much close to 10. Why do I say that? Think about the power that now exists to destroy. This is unique in history. At no other time has it been so easy to achieve the destruction of all life. The religious and racial hatred has been with us from time immemorial, but not the means to destroy. And the geopolitical forces currently in play will not allow a significant pause in conflict. The Muslim world is growing larger every day, the "Christian" West is in decline. The godless Chinese are wanting to take the leading role in the world economy. And Russia is not ready to become a footnote of history. And then there is Iran. Is it so difficult to imagine an alignment of Russia and Iran that gets hostile against Israel?

And Israel is the key. I cannot imagine God allowing that nation to be destroyed, yet the forces arrayed against it are poised to do just that (if their rhetoric is to be believed).

So I'm thinking we are in the season of the end. Watch world events very closely. Interpret them through the lens of scripture, and particularly with a view toward how things will affect Israel.

Getting old, I guess

Not a whole lot to say today. I've been encouraged to record my most recent prognostications, however I'm having trouble remembering what they were. Perhaps someone out there could help my memory...?

I.O.U.S.A

We just watched the full version of this movie. We are screwed. Scratch that, our kids and their kids are screwed.

Sometimes we are our worst enemy

The recent murder of abortion doctor Tiller in Kansas is a sad affair. No matter what your opinion on the subject of abortion and, specific to Dr. Tiller, late-term abortion, this murder should be considered a terrible act without any reasonable justification. I'm sure that the murderer didn't reflect on the longer term consequences of his actions. Those will left to the rest of us to address.

I expect that this event will become the rallying cry for those in the pro-abortion camp. This will become the poster child for changing the discussion on the allowability/desireability of any kind of debate on the topic of abortion. Soon all those who choose to protest abortion will be a priori judged to be capable of murder (forgetting for a moment that we are all so capable). It won't stop there, though. Abortion protesters will become pre-disposed toward murder. In fact, any protest will be seen as simply a precursor to the act of murder. Hence, all abortion protests will be outlawed. There will be vigorous application of this prohibition to all venues. You won't even be able to write a letter to the Editor of your local newspaper without coming under serious persecution/prosecution.

You may think that my prediction is too overdone. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

How can you say "No" to this magnificent coin?

This graph should alarm you. As you can see, the USA spends a great deal more on healthcare (as a % of GDP) than the average of several other developed nations. This has a direct impact on the competitive advantage that other countries have over US manufacturers. This is a large part of the problems at GM, Chrysler and Ford. And now we have an Administration and Congress that are eager to provide "free" healthcare to 40 million Americans who currently are uninsured or under-insured. Where do you suppose the money to cover those costs will come from? And once they have access to "free" and "unlimited" healthcare, do you suppose the demand for healthcare will stay the same, or lessen? Of course not! Already in 2009, 50 cents of every dollar that the US Gov't spends will have to be borrowed. Imagine what it will be like if we go to some kind of national health insurance scheme.

Here is a new graphic that is very interesting. What we see is that after this latest drop in the Dow we are still a bit more expensive, in Gold terms, that the last 3 low points. If we say the "normal" low point is 2oz of Gold to buy the Dow (meaning if Gold is $800/oz the Dow is 1600). To rectify this we'd need to see either the Dow drop to 1800-1900 (given Gold at $900-$950/oz) or Gold to rise to $4000 (given the Dow at 8000). A more likely scenario is that both prices move and meet in the middle. So a Dow of 4000 and Gold at $2000/oz is within the realm of possibility.

Do you have any Gold?

Old Or Young - Make Up Your Mind

Is the created universe young, or old? By young I am meaning something on the order of 10,000 years and by old I am meaning the 13-15 billion years that the evolutionary scientists would have us believe. I believe in a young age, for reasons I will expound upon in a moment. But first it is important to note that this question, and the answer thereof, is of minimal significance in the overall scheme of things. Of vastly more importance is the answer and response to the question of Christ’s significance to my life.

Nevertheless, why do I believe in a young age? Here are my reasons:

1. One of the first principles of Bible study is to just accept the written word at face value. If we do that, the immediate conclusion drawn is that the record of history included in the Bible only covers a few thousand years. This is not a compelling argument, but it is a simple one that is easily understood.

2. Some would say that the 6 “days” of creation do not refer to 6 periods of 24 hours duration. My counter to this is that each “day” transitioned to the next one via an evening and a morning. When one has to rely on a convoluted argument to prove that the simple, plain text interpretation or understanding of the Bible is not correct, I begin to have a problem. And the simple understanding in this case is that a 24-hour period, as we know it today, is being described.

3. Various passages of Scripture refer to God having brought the universe into being by speaking it.
“By the word of the Lord were the heavens made, their starry hosts by the breath of his mouth.” Ps 33:6
“For he spoke, and it came to be.” Ps 33.9
It seems incredible (as in, not credible) to me that God only spoke the time-space continuum into being and then stepped back to allow natural interactions, in accordance with physical laws set by Him, to deliver this present age some 15 billion years after His first cause.

4. Closely coupled with argument #3 is the struggle I have with accepting that God would require the passage of time to lay out the universe as we see it. This concept seems to imply that God isn’t up to the challenge of directing the uncountable number of physical interactions that occur every moment throughout the universe, so He had to rely on large quantities of time to give Himself the appropriate statistical chances that things would turn out. This flies in the face of the idea that God has a plan, that He is actively directing the course of history.
“according to the plan of him who works everything in conformity with the purpose of his will” Eph 1:11

5. The creation account in Genesis does not follow what would be expected of a naturalistic, evolutionary process. For example, it wasn’t until the 4th day that the sun, moon and stars were created. This is completely out of line with a naturalistic explanation. Believers who attempt to find common ground with evolution would have to discard this whole day in the account. And once you start picking and choosing what you will believe you really have no credible position any longer.

As you can see, my reasons have little to do with scientific evidence and everything to do with the declarations of the Bible. I think it is important to pause and think about that distinction. Each person must decide where their ultimate truth will come from, the wisdom of man or the wisdom of God.
“in the wisdom of God the world through its wisdom did not know him” I Cor 1:21

Personally, I’d rather start with believing God and then wait for the understanding to come that allows man’s knowledge to match up. This is a key point, and I will linger for a moment to explore it further. Consider this,
“since what may be known about God is plain to them, because God has made it plain to them. For since the creation of the world God’s invisible qualities – his eternal power and divine nature – have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse.” Rom 1:19-20

In the movie “Expelled” one of the Darwinists was asked what he’d say to God if it turns out that God really does exist. The answer was something along the line of “Why did you hide yourself?” Quite clearly the exact opposite is true. God is not in hiding, that which may be known about him is plain to see. In fact, even his invisible qualities are knowable. They are evident in the very creation, the very STUFF that the Darwinists claim as their only source of knowledge!
“The heavens declare the glory of God.” Ps 19:1
“But ask the animals, and they will teach you, or the birds of the air, and they will tell you; or speak to the earth, and it will teach you, or let the fish of the sea inform you. Which of all these does not know that the hand of the Lord has done this?” Job 12:7-9

How is it that so many supposedly wise men have come to a completely false conclusion? The Bible has words to describe the current situation,
“their thinking became futile and their foolish hearts were darkened. Although they claimed to be wise, they became fools.” Rom 1:21-22

I don’t expect that these few words will convince anyone about the age of the universe. That isn’t my intent. I’m more interested in getting you to think about the source of the claims that you ascribe to as truth. Are you relying upon the wisdom of man, or the wisdom of God. In the case of the question before us, I’d much rather say simply that I don’t know how old the universe is, but I do know that God created it, he has directed it according to his plan from the very beginning and it will reach fulfillment some day when he brings “all things in heaven and on earth together under one head, even Christ.” Eph 1:10

The age of Earth - Moon dust argument

http://www.answersingenesis.org/creation/v15/i4/moondust.asp

What is the point?

What is the point, you may have asked yourself, to these great thoughts that are being thunk? It is a question worth asking, and answering. But before we go there I think it might be profitable to spend some time putting the big picture together. This will give us some context for our future discussions, a framework to place the various puzzle pieces we examine.

First of all, it is my view that we aren’t headed for a glorious future filled with human accomplishment. I don’t know how long it will take us to not reach that end, but we are inexorably moving away from it. That was a backward way of saying that we’re headed towards an uninviting destination in the proverbial hand-basket. Of course, this outlook is colored by events happening in America that aren’t necessarily representative of the rest of the world, but I don’t think that matters. As an example, Mark Steyn has written in “America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It” about the rapidly changing demographic in Europe, citing the low birth rates of the ethnic European peoples at the same time that immigration and the high birth rates of the Islamic people in Europe are already altering the political landscape and in as little as a decade or two that continent will be controlled by persons who lack a Western cultural heritage and are followers of an extremist religious philosophy bent upon domination and extermination of all who hold an opposing point of view. So, the bad news is all around us.

And the evidence pointing to this conclusion can be found in a variety of places. The shifts in cultural mores, political thought, economic conditions and geo-politics can all be indicators of the overall direction of life. I recognize, however, that others might look at the same set of conditions or circumstances that I am viewing and come to a dramatically different conclusion. That, in itself, is a strong argument in favor of my point. It used to be, not all that long ago, that Americans shared a fairly consistent view of the world. This view was independent of ethnic, economic or religious background. There was a common understanding that some things were right and some things were wrong. Kids didn’t grow up as hooligans because even when parents weren’t around there were always friends, neighbors and society to censure and decry shameful behavior. In fact, as a society we’ve entirely lost our sense of shame. How else can you explain the debased and moronic antics that pass for humor and entertainment on TV and in the movies? In some ways I can find sympathy for the revulsion that religious Islamists feel toward our society. I can’t sympathize with their extreme positions, but I think I know where they’re coming from.

I’ll pick up this thread next time and we’ll see where it goes from here.

America for Sale!

Here are some recent headlines and stories. I point these out because I want to start laying a foundation for your appreciation of the global economic situation that exists today and which is moving along a trajectory that will have huge implications for our future.

Citigroup to Take $16 Billion Writedown, Merrill Says
By Edward Evans
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, may be forced to write down $16 billion in the fourth quarter and post a larger loss than previously estimated, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Guy Moszkowski said.

Citi Loses Almost $10B, Slashes Dividend
Tuesday January 15, 9:38 am ET By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
NEW YORK (AP) -- Citigroup Inc. lost almost $10 billion in last year's final three months, the largest quarterly deficit in the bank's 196-year history, and slashed its dividend as it recorded a mammoth write-down for bad bets on the mortgage industry.
The nation's largest bank wrote down the value of its portfolio by $18.1 billion. It also boosted loan-loss reserves by $4.1 billion, signaling further problems in its consumer businesses as deflated home prices, high energy and food costs, and rising unemployment weigh on people's ability to make their loan payments.
To cut expenses, it slashed 4,200 jobs in the fourth quarter in addition to the 17,000 layoffs announced in the spring, and chief financial officer Gary Crittenden said during a conference call that more job cuts would be on the way.
Chief Executive Vikram Pandit, who replaced Charles Prince in December, said the fourth-quarter results were "unacceptable", and that he was "not yet finished" in his review of whether any of the global bank's core operations need to be cut or sold.
To bolster its capital, the bank also said Tuesday it has lined up $12.5 billion in new investments from sovereign wealth funds and existing shareholders.
That includes $6.88 billion from the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. for a 4 percent stake. Other investors were Capital Research Global Investors, Capital World Investors, the Kuwait Investment Authority, the New Jersey Division of Investment, shareholder Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia and former chief executive Sanford Weill and his family foundation.
The $12.5 billion in fresh equity adds to the $7.5 billion that Citi got in November from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority in exchange for a 4.9 percent stake in the company.
Over the past several weeks, Asian funds have been buying up the battered stocks of struggling U.S. banks. Early Tuesday, Merrill Lynch said it will receive a total of $6.6 billion from the Korean Investment Corp., Kuwait Investment Authority and Japan's Mizuho Corporate Bank -- in addition to the $4.4 billion it has already gotten from Singapore's state-run Temasek Holdings. Pandit said Citigroup would continue to sell off "non-core" assets. The bank has already sold shares in Redecard, a card business in Latin America, and an ownership interest in a unit of the Japanese brokerage Nikko Cordial it bought last year.

Merrill Lynch to Get $6.6 Billion
Tuesday January 15, 6:45 am ET By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer
NEW YORK (AP) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. said Tuesday that it is getting a cash infusion of $6.6 billion from three foreign investment funds.
The Korean Investment Corp., Kuwait Investment Authority and Mizuho Corporate Bank will receive a special class of stock for their combined $6.6 billion investment. All will be passive investors and none will have any rights of control.
Both the Korean and Kuwaiti investment groups are owned by the state governments. Mizuho is a Japanese investment bank.
Working with the foreign investors will allow Merrill Lynch to broaden its relationships and operations around the world, Merrill Lynch's new chairman and chief executive, John Thain, said in a statement. The investors will receive a 9 percent dividend and their class of stock will be convertible to common shares in two years and nine months.
This is the second round of capital raising Merrill Lynch has announced in the past month. On Dec. 24, Merrill Lynch said it would sell a stake in itself of up to $5 billion to Singapore's state-run Temasek Holdings and an additional $1.2 billion stake to Davis Selected Advisers.

Where should I begin? Sovereign Wealth Funds – SWF – get used to the name. This is a euphemism for ‘America is on SALE!’ Simply put, these funds are all the US$$ held by foreign governments after selling us cars, trinkets and oil. Since it has become painfully evident that the dollars aren’t good for long term holding the SWF’s are spending them like sailors on shore leave, buying up tangible US-based assets, including shares in US banks and other financial institutions. I don’t have any disagreement with this activity, it is the marketplace doing what it does best, allocating capital to where it will be treated best. But there are geo-political implications that are apparently being ignored – at best, or not understood – at worst, by the movers and shakers in our government. There are several Trillion dollars held by these SWFs, and that will buy a lot of good ol’ American apple pie. What happens when the foreign owners of these “American” companies start making business decisions that aren’t exactly in the best interest of US citizens? What happens when they decide it is good business, for them, to move jobs out of America? As I see it there are two alternatives, either we let it happen and deal with the new circumstances of life as renters or the US government intervenes to save American jobs and our way of life. This would involve a breach of contract at the very least, and I would expect this to start a cascade of effects that would be unpleasant and most likely even less acceptable than the first alternative. What's my point? Only that you need to be aware this is happening so that you can start connecting the dots for yourself.

One other point, did you happen to catch that part in the Merrill story about claiming “all will be passive investors and none will have rights of control” and then buried a little lower for only the serious reader we find the note that all of this will eventually convert to common stock, which does confer “rights of control”. Make no mistake, these foreign investors will not be satisfied to remain passive. It might not change tomorrow, or next month or next year. But it will change.

One last excerpt from the Citigroup news:
Citigroup's $18.1 billion writedown was significantly wider than the $6 billion writedown it took in the third quarter last year, and bigger than the $8 billion to $11 billion it guessed in October that it would take for the fourth quarter.
Citigroup said as of Dec. 31, it had a total of $37.3 billion in direct subprime mortgage exposure, down from $54.6 billion three months prior.

So, let’s do some math. At the end of September Citi had $54.6B in subprime exposure. At the time they guessed they might lose $8-$11B, turns out they lost $18B. Now they have $37.3B in exposure. How much will they lose over this next 3 months? According to the article they’ve sold at least 10% of the company to foreign entities, several in the Mideast and Asia. This is not over by a long shot. Stay tuned.

Lasting Value

The graphic below is interesting in several ways, but I'll comment on only one feature in this post.



The concept of exchange between items of tangible value, such as oil and gold, initially assumes that the quantities of exchange would be expected to remain the same. But, in the real world things such as supply and demand enter into play and have to be given due consideration. Some of that is evident in this graphic.

The other thing that I see is that there appears to be a baseline "value" relationship between oil and gold, somewhere in the region of 10 barrels per ounce. That is about where we are today. If you accept this notion, then there isn't any cause to complain about the "price" of oil, because it real terms it hasn't changed from its baseline. What becomes clear is that the value of the US dollar has dropped. A rational response to this situation would be to convert all of your US dollars into gold, at least whenever you've accumulated enough of them to make the transaction costs acceptable. Then, whenever you're ready to purchase real commodities you re-convert gold into dollars and make the purchase. Theoretically, at least, your store of gold will preserve its "value" relative to other tangible commodities, independent of the number of dollars represented by the pile of gold.

What do you think?

Stand By

After incessant cajoling from my compatriot I've decided to take pen in hand, figuratively speaking, and become one of the authors on this blog. Stand by for occassional posts as I seen various evidences of this trip we are all making in the proverbial 'handbasket'.

I hope you enjoy my musings.

Security

Expect the Democratic Administration to pursue with great vigor a foreign policy of appeasement and conciliation. Our troops will be withdrawn from the current hot spots, and in similar fashion to #3 above they will go beyond that to recall troops from even more overseas locations, as well. They’ll be rallying to the cry to “bring our boys home”, which will be the setup for the next item. The added benefit to this policy is that it will free up some dollars that had been going to the Defense Dept. so that they can be more “productively” spent through the various entitlement programs, otherwise known as voter snares.
With America taking deliberate steps to disengage from any appearance of hostile intent with respect to anything having to do with Islam, the radical element of that culture will begin the plotting necessary to bring down a rain of terror on the US and Israel. This will be evidenced by a period, probably less than a year, of apparent peace. This will be the time they take to lull us into a false security and to establish their own readiness for what follows. It might take longer, if the US is slowed down in extracting itself from the Middle East. I don’t believe they will want to start something while US troops are still in the field.
Terror strikes against both the US and Israel will follow. I expect that the damage in Israel will be kept within limits, since I don’t believe there is any illusion in the rational Islamic mind about Israel’s willingness to use any means necessary to protect itself. The key word is rational. If irrational Islamic radicals start to move against Israel I think we could easily transition into a situation that would potentially be a fulfillment of the events of Ezekiel 38.
I expect the terrorists will place fewer limits upon what can be done against the American people and the homeland. I think they will strike in a variety of ways, against populations and against our infrastructure. I believe they will attempt to disrupt our commerce and our communications. Chaos in America will free them for action around the world. I also think they will strike against Europe and foment Islamic rebellion in those countries. The “sophisticated” European disdain for America’s “cowboy diplomacy” will not save them from the terror.
The clueless Democrats will blame the initial terrorist attacks on Bush, on his policies and actions that have caused fear and loathing to rise in the hearts of otherwise peace-loving Islamists. I don’t know how many thousands of Americans will have to die before it starts to dawn on even the Democrats that those people really do hate us and they want to kill us.

Civil Liberties

Although the Democrats have made little noises about the erosion of “liberties” that come as a consequence of the legislation passed to create Homeland Security, and all that entails, the truth of the matter is that they absolutely love the new controls this will give them over the population. Expect to see even greater abuses of power over the sovereignty of the people under the Democrats. The irony will be that they can use the excuse, conveniently provided by the bumbling Republicans, that they are being “strong for America”. The only departure in this arena will be the opening of our borders, as a sign that we are loving and caring and would never want to offend anyone by shutting them out.

Taxes

Hold on to your wallets, taxes will not be going down. At least, not for the “rich”. And according to a Democrat, you’re rich if you don’t have your hand out begging for something from the government. As far as they are concerned, if you don’t need them, then they do need you (to pay taxes, that is).

The decline of the Right

There will be a determined effort to undermine the influence of the conservative Right in America. I believe the main thrust in this area will be in education. As we saw in a recent Truth Project lesson, if you can control the past (by teaching them only what you want them to know), then you can control the future. Expect to see more efforts to marginalize home-schooling, either by attaching onerous regulations to it, or by making it harder to obtain credit for having been home-schooled. I expect that all educational alternatives to the NEA-sponsored public education system will become harder and harder to maintain.

Dems in control

The Democratic candidate for President will win the election in 2008, by a landslide margin in the Electoral College. I would not be surprised if the Republican candidate gets fewer than 50 electoral votes.
The Democratic majority in both the House and Senate will be even larger after the 2008 elections.
The Democrats will take advantage of their legislative primacy by enacting a wide variety of legislation, all in a reaction to their pent up frustration with the “lack of progress” in making social advances due to the Republican obstructions of the Bush years. Due to the reactionary element behind this legislative push, much of the legislation will be quite a bit further left-of-center than we might usually expect from mainline legislation. They will succeed in this effort,
because they can,
the Republican party will be fractured, ineffective and still in a daze by the sheer enormity of their electoral losses,and because they are in control of, and masters of the effective use of the spin machine.